Forensic Friday: Probabilistic Genotyping – Science or Sorcery?
When DNA is too degraded, too diluted, or too crowded with genetic party crashers to yield a clean match, forensic labs sometimes turn to a method called probabilistic genotyping. Sounds impressive, right? It should. It uses complex software to simulate a bazillion genetic scenarios and spit out a probability like,
“There’s a 1 in 10 million chance this DNA came from anyone but the suspect.”
Here’s where things get murky: The software is often proprietary—meaning the source code is locked away like it’s guarding the secret recipe for crime-solving Coca-Cola.
Defense teams and judges frequently can’t examine how those numbers are calculated. Different software can yield different results on the same sample. And yes, human interpretation still plays a role in the input and analysis.
Translation? You might be convicted by a glorified black box with a statistics kink.
Is it a useful tool? Absolutely.
Is it bulletproof science? Not by a long shot.
Sound off, Order Members: Should courts rely on evidence that even experts can’t fully audit? Have you heard of real cases where this tech played a role? Let’s break it down like a bad alibi.
Verdict Pending. Make Your Choice.
